mt pinatubo alert levels

Activity More Intense Eruption Probable 3. But there were still others who refused to be evacuated (Velarde and Bartolome, 1991). The respondents were of two types: households (with the household head or an adult household member as respondent) and key informants from among barangay and municipal officials. In mid-March 1991, villagers around Mt. Hazardous eruption ongoing. An evacuation area 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) away from the volcano was established and 25,000 people were evacuated. That night, pyroclastic flows buried the caves and killed those inside. We intended that Civil Defense could design and key their mitigation actions to these alert levels. PHIVOLCS is committed to protect and respect your personal data privacy in compliance with the Data Privacy Act of 2012. But these people changed their minds when they could not read sign boards on the buses that indicated which should be boarded by Villar residents, by Moraza residents, and so on. Increased water and/or ground probe hole temperatures, increased bubbling at Crater Lake. Relatively high and increasing unrest, including numerous b-type earthquakes, accelerating ground deformation, increased vigor of fumaroles, gas emission. Describe the 4 alert levels for volcanic eruptions: 1. Another 13 respondents (from the 20- to 40-km danger zone) overreacted by evacuating before they were ordered to do so. The question remains, would this percentage be as large should there be a call for evacuation of areas beyond the 10-km radius? The other residents had either relocated or were still in evacuation centers. This site uses cookies and third-party service to analyze non-identifiable web traffic data. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology is maintaining Alert Level 3 at Pinatubo, warning that an explosive eruption is possible. Revised alert levels for Mount Pinatubo (revised December 1992). However, eruptions vary in style and intensity, so such a correspondence may not be feasible. 7 - Seismographs at Mount Pinatubo Monitoring Observatory site at Clark Air Base, Philippines. 13th May 1991 – Alert Level 2. and Hoblitt, R.P., this volume, Overview of the eruptions. Alcayde, Jerry, 1991, 1876 families move out of volcano area: The Philippine Star, April 22, 1991. Upon receipt of the LAKAS report, PHIVOLCS immediately began to monitor Pinatubo and, thenceforth, became the principal source of warnings. Evacuation orders were issued by concerned Disaster Coordinating Councils or local government officials soon after danger zones were declared on April 7, June 7, and June 14-15, 1991. Reasons for not evacuating immediately as when advised. In early June, tiltmetre measurements had shown that the volcano was … Broadcast radio served as the principal channel for warning communities in this area. Sustained increases in the temperature, acidity and volcanic gas concentrations of springs and fumaroles, and in the levels of ground deformation or swelling of the edifice. A) If trend is one of increasing unrest, hazardous eruption is possible within days to weeks. However, some overreaction was observed as an evacuation order was received by respondents who lived outside the danger zone. Morella, Cecil, 1991, Volano eruption displaces Aetas: Manila Bulletin, June 11, 1991. Sustained increases in SO, Intensifying unrest characterized by earthquake swarms and volcanic tremor, many perceptible. GeoNet yesterday raised the volcano alert to level … Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. Benefits of Volcano Monitoring Far Outweigh Costs–The Case of Mount Pinatubo USGS Fact Sheet 115-97. The review involved two sampling surveys among the affected households: the first conducted within a month after the June 1991 major eruptions and the second during the month following the declaration of Alert Level 5 in July 1992. Either the information drive launched by PHIVOLCS and other disaster response organizations before the eruption did not reach these respondents or the information campaign failed to drive home to them the magnitude of the threat and the urgency as well as the possibility of avoiding the volcano's fury. Interpretation. 1990 census figures indicate that the barangays within the 10-km and 10- to 20-km danger zones had 7,653 households, or 41,100 residents; the 20- to 40-km danger zone, which included 106 barangays in 17 towns, had 58,696 households and more than 331,000 inhabitants (National Statistics Office, 1990). Much of the rugged land around the present volcano consists of remnants of "ancestral" Pinatubo. We intended that Civil Defense could design and key their mitigation actions to these alert levels. Hours after intensified ash emission on June 9, evacuees who earlier refused to leave were reported to have finally climbed into trucks brought by rescuers. This move might not eliminate exaggerated or fabricated reports but could minimize the effect of such reports if people listen to and believe only the official transmitters. Those warnings provided enough lead time for the beleaguered inhabitants to pack up and run away from the volcano. Mount Pinatubo was an example of Plinian eruption 6-km radius Danger Zone may be extended to 7 km in the sector where the crater rim is low. Magma close to or at earth’s surface. In the case of Mt. The assumption is that it is possible to determine the areas likely to be endangered by each type and magnitude of activity referred to in each alert level. with a level 4 alert on 7th June. Danger zones may be expanded to a radius of ten (10) kilometers or more from the summit crater or active vent. Lake Pinatubo (Filipino: Lawa ng Pinatubo) is the summit crater lake of Mount Pinatubo formed after its climactic eruption on June 15, 1991. Eruption Possible Within 24 Hours 9. Inhabitants who received warnings and evacuation orders but did not take defensive action obviously lacked appreciation of the magnitude of the dangers posed by the volcano. Sudden or increasing changes in temperature or bubbling activity or radon gas emission or crater lake pH. Because the 1992 survey was confined to the 10- to 20-km danger zone, no respondent was expected to have received an evacuation order. Interpretation. In practice, the latter distinction was largely lost.] Details of the monitoring activities and chronology of preeruption events are given by Sabit and others (this volume) and Wolfe and Hoblitt (this volume); details of preeruption warnings are given by Punongbayan and others (this volume). Swelling of edifice may be detected. ." The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology is maintaining Alert Level 3 at Pinatubo, warning that an explosive eruption is possible. The extrusion of a lava dome on June 7 led to the issuance of a Level 5 alert on June 9, indicating an eruption in progress. Magma is close to the crater. On the western side, most of the former residents of the sample barangays in this zone were living (officially) in the relocation sites, but many were also spending days, weeks, or even months on their preeruption land planting and gathering food, whenever they felt it safe enough to do so. The danger zone was shrunk back to a 20-km radius on June 18, though Alert Level 5 remained. Respondents from the villages Sapangbato and Margot of Angeles City reported that sometime before July 14, 1992, a popular radio announcer, citing PHIVOLCS as his source, broadcast that Mount Pinatubo would erupt within 72 h. It is interesting to note that the PHIVOLCS alert levels do not include one that indicates that the volcano may erupt within 72 h. The signal with the closest time reference is Alert Level 4, which means that eruption is possible within 24 h. But Alert Level 4 was not used in 1992, as the Alert Level jumped from 3 to 5. Entry within PDZ must be prohibited. But other factors, including some features of the alert levels, may have inspired overexpectations and overreactions. The final test of a warning system's effectiveness is the receipt of and appropriate response to the warning by the target recipients. 1 Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Wolfe, E.W. On June 5, a Level 3 alert was issued for two weeks due to the possibility of a major eruption. In comparison, he said Taal's volcanic activity rapidly escalated starting 11 a.m. Sunday. Those within the 10-km danger zone should have received their order as early as April 7; those within the 10- to 20-km danger zone, on June 7; and those within the 20- to 40-km danger zone, on June 14-15. Had there been a real need for evacuation, the noncompliance of the recipients would have exposed them to danger. But 23 percent delayed evacuation and 6 percent evacuated selectively. In mid-March 1991, villagers around Mt. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Address: PHIVOLCS Building, C.P Garcia Ave., U.P. Mt Pinatubo Volcano | John Seach. Initially, volcanologists considered employing an alert level terminology used at other Philippine volcanoes but opted to design a new one for Pinatubo (table 1). An evacuation area 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) away from the volcano was established and 25,000 people were evacuated. Fifty-eight percent of all respondents evacuated when and as advised, and an additional 11 percent evacuated even without or before receiving evacuation order. The extrusion of a lava dome on June 7 led to the issuance of a Level 5 alert on June 9, indicating an eruption in progress. All monitored parameters within background levels. The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo temporarily lowered global temperatures by nearly 1 degree. Response to preeruption warning and false evacuation order. Base surges accompanied by eruption columns or lava fountaining or lava flows. Appendix 2. Alert Level 2 is issued (Volcano Discovery). Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal disturbance; no eruption imminent. On June 14, this was further expanded to the 30-km radius. Sustained increases in SO2 emission rates, ground deformation/swelling of the edifice. From Level 5 to Level 4:            Wait at least 24 hours after hazardous activity stops, From Level 4 to Level 3 or 2:    Wait at least 2 weeks after activity drops below Level 4, From Level 3 to Level 2:            Wait 2 weeks after activity drops below Level 3. 62,000 people have … The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo produced about 5 cubic kilometers of dacitic magma and may be the second largest volcanic eruption of the century. Alert Level 2 is issued (Volcano Discovery). Before June 12, the date of the first large explosive events, 82 percent of the respondents knew of the danger. Two hundred and two (86 percent) of the 234 respondents received an evacuation order while 14 percent did not. It was maintained even when Alert Level 3 was raised on June 5. The Pilipino translation of the phrase "eruption is possible within. Ironically, the wording was actually chosen to avoid making specific predictions. Vigorous steaming / sustained crater glow. volcanologists use a system of alert levels to warn people of the danger posed by a restless volcano. These problems indicate a need for hazard-awareness promotion that is more intensive and broader in outreach than was possible during the 2-month period from the time the volcano started showing signs of restiveness up to the time of the major explosions. Pinatubo eruption compared to the 1980 eruption of Mt. [Household survey, 1992; number of respondents was 130; all from the 10- to 20-km radius danger zone]. 1 Lahars may be generated by intense rainfall over the volcano area and may affect riverside communities far down the PDZ.. 2 Sulfur Dioxide is a major gas component of magma.. STAND-DOWN PROCEDURES. The council even provided vehicles to bring the evacuees to the evacuation centers. Increasing likelihood of an eruption, possibly within days to week. One Municipal Disaster Coordinating Council (MDCC) official admitted that the council decided to order evacuation of barangays beyond the 10-km but within the 20-km radius (including one community that was already living in a relocation center) on the night of July 15. The mayor of San Marcelino reported that during rescue operations on June 9, 10 Aeta families opted to stay, believing that the eruption was nothing serious--"para lang daw malakas na bagyo'yan" ("it is just like a strong typhoon") (De Villa, 1991). 2-99C (Zambales), Population by City, Municipality and Barangay: NSO, Manila. Generally weak steam emission. 1500 earthquakes are measured a day under the volcano, and a (probably phreataic) ash eruption sends a plume to 8 km altitude, suggesting magma is very close to the surface now. But when Mount Pinatubo started showing signs of restiveness in April 1991, PHIVOLCS had no monitoring at the volcano and, hence, no warning system for the area. Life-threatening eruption producing volcanic hazards that endanger communities. The authors are deeply indebted to Dr. Dennis Mileti and Dr. C. Dan Miller, whose comments and suggestions did not only enrich the final output but provided a rich source of learning for the authors as well, and to Dr. Chris Newhall for his patience, relentless prodding, and meticulous attention to detail. Additional danger areas may be identified as eruption progresses. Normally, the source of eruption warning should be the entity tasked to study and monitor active volcanoes. Since the major eruption of June 15, 1991, the lahar hazard part of these maps has been updated several times. [Household survey, 1991; number of respondents was 167], Table 7. The number of casualties at the height of the June 1991 eruptions was small (only 200 to 300) despite the violence of the explosions and the vastness of the area affected. Two other informants said half of the residents of sitio Lomboy were very reluctant to evacuate. Appendix 1. The first formal evacuation was ordered on April 7 in the 10 km zone. Hazardous eruption in progress. Elevated levels of any of the following parameters: volcanic earthquake, temperature, acidity and volcanic gas concentrations of monitored springs and fumaroles, steam and ash explosions from the summit crater or new vents, inflation or swelling of the edifice. However, because no evacuation was required, the improvement in the percentage of appropriate response may be more apparent than real. Preliminary hazard zonation maps were disseminated by PHIVOLCS on and after May 23, 1991. Low to moderate level of seismicity, persistence of local but unfelt earthquakes. We hope the experience in evolving a suitable warning system for Pinatubo will yield some valuable lessons for issuing warnings at other active volcanoes. No alert . Sustained increases in the levels of volcanic earthquakes, some of which may be perceptible. The revised alert levels allow for differentiation of large and small eruptions. Nevertheless, some aspects could still be improved. The broadcast of a warning that an eruption was imminent within 72 h, falsely attributed to PHIVOLCS, triggered discussions on the wisdom of the modified warning transmission procedure adopted at Pinatubo. Frequent strong ash explosions. This was after volcanic activity escalated within hours last Sunday prompting the phreatic explosion. By June 14, 99 percent of the respondents knew of impending danger, from continued warnings and, especially, from observing the preparoxysmal eruptions (Wolfe and Hoblitt, this volume). Quiescence; nno magmatic eruption is foreseen. Another possible improvement in the alert level scheme would be to reword the "Interpretations" and specifically the phrase "eruption is possible within 2 weeks [or 24 hours]." The increased alert level and heightened activity at Mt Ruapehu’s Crater Lake isn’t an indication that an eruption will happen – but it is possible. The highest level is alert level 5, which incidates that a hazardous eruption is in progress. Activity Detected Eruption Not Imminent 2. Slight increase in volcanic earthquake and steam/gas activity. ... told CNN that the alert level … The following day (June 10), Clark Air Base, a U.S. military installation near the volcano, was evacuated. The volcano's 1992 activities were entirely different from its 1991 eruptions. Pinatubo Eruption, Philippines 1991 - Case Study for AQA A-Level Geography. Low level seismic, fumarolic, other unrest. 2 Sulfur Dioxide is a major gas component of magma. FIRE and MUD: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, edited by Christopher G. Newhall and Raymundo S. Punongbayan, 1996 This warning procedure was modified in the case of Pinatubo. Some of these Aetas, members of Lubos na Alyansa ng mga Katutubong Ayta sa Sambales (LAKAS) (Negrito People's Alliance of Zambales), reported their observations to PHIVOLCS through Sister Emma, a sister of the Franciscan Missionaries of Mary (FMM) who was doing missionary work among the Aetas. Entry in the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is not advised because phreatic explosions and ash puffs may occur without precursors. Alert Level 5 will be used … Household respondents were randomly selected from lists of household heads provided by barangay leaders, with substitutions when the original respondents were either unavailable or unwilling. But it would also limit the area that could be reached, given a short lead time for warning dissemination. The alert levels were based on instrumentally derived data and daily visual observations. The organization ensured that everyone received the warning and evacuation order. Relatively high unrest. Low to moderate level of seismic activity. Evacuation orders were transmitted soon after the danger zones were declared by PHIVOLCS, on April 7, June 7, and June 14-15. Quiet. The 1991 alerts were indeed specific--in terms of expected magnitude, areas likely to be affected, and time of occurrence--but they were specific to the 1991 eruptive activities. Fig. Although transmission of warnings is officially the responsibility of the DCCs, PHIVOLCS observatory personnel help deliver warnings to nearby inhabitants. Low to moderate level of seismic, other unrest with positive evidence for involvement of magma. In 1991, Mount Pinatubo underwent a Plinian eruption cooling the earth for a decade. Therefore, evacuation was recommended only for those who had returned to the <10-km danger zone despite advice against reoccupation of the area. MagmatiM eruption characterized by explosive production of tall ash-laden eruption columns, or by massive collapses of summit lava dome. Entry within PDZ must be prohibited. Incandescent lava dome, lava fountain, lava flow in the summit area. This is why, at other monitored Philippine volcanoes, warnings and evacuation advice are passed, as much as possible, through the concerned DCCs. These respondents recounted that, before the eruptions, the eruption threat and the hazards posed by the volcano had been explained to them by PHIVOLCS and other officials. The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo produced about 5 cubic kilometers of dacitic magma and may be the second largest volcanic eruption of the century. The highest alert level 4 is issued, meaning that a significant eruption might happen any time now. When Pinatubo threatened again to erupt in 1992, more than 90 percent of the respondents were forewarned and responded appropriately, indicating a marked improvement in the system. Intensifying unrest characterized by earthquake swarms and volcanic tremor, many of which may be perceptible. Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991. On the eastern side of the volcano, most barangays within the 10- to 20-km danger zone that were sampled in 1992 had only about half of their original pre-1991 eruption populations. Diliman, Quezon City Philippines 1101. Unrest probably of magmatic origin; could eventually lead to eruption. Eruption columns reached 40 kilometers in altitude and emplaced a giant umbrella cloud in the middle to lower stratosphere that injected about 17 megatons of SO2, slightly more than twice the largest yielded by the 1982 eruption of El Chichon, Mexico. Throughout the 1992 activity, PHIVOLCS merely reiterated the continued enforcement of the 10-km danger zone. Phivolcs lowered the volcano's alert level to 3 on Sunday morning, January 26. Alert levels and danger zones issued on Mount Pinatubo, 1991­92 (PHIVOLCS, variously dated). Occurrence of rockfalls in summit area. The concept is not new, and there have been attempts to establish such a system. An evacuation area 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) away from the volcano was established and 25,000 people were evacuated. How to incorporate these without making the scheme of alert levels inflexible and too specific remains to be studied. This means a MAJOR volcanic eruption is imminent. Sustained increase, or sudden drop, of SO. On June 15th 1991, the second largest volcanic eruption of the twentieth century took place when Mt Pinatubo erupted at 1:42 pm local time. Some feared lowlanders would burn their crops and homes. The Mount Pinatubo 1991 eruption provides an excellent example of how accurate forecasting and timely warning saved lives from the destructive agents unleashed by a violent eruption. In the case of Mt. At the five most active volcanoes being monitored by PHIVOLCS--Mayon, Bulusan, Taal, Hibok-Hibok, and Canlaon--eruption warnings are usually passed through the appropriate DCC. Gob, Fely, 1991, Rains bring death to Pinatubo evacuees: Daily Globe[Manila], April 22, 1991. ------1987, Public information aspects, in Disaster prevention and mitigation, v. 10: New York, United Nations. The heightened volcanic alert level on Mt Ruapehu has been described as a "kick in the guts" for one tourism business. In order to protect against “lull before the storm” phenomena, alert levels will be maintained for the following periods AFTER activity decreases to the next lower level: From level 5 to level 4:            Wait 12 hours after level 5 activity stops, From level 4 to level 3 to 2:    Wait 2 weeks after activity drops below level 4, From level 3 to level 2:            Wait 2 weeks after activity drops below level 3. In order to minimize unnecessary changes in declaration of Alert Levels, the following periods shall be observed: From Level 5 to Level 4: Wait at least 24 hours after hazardous activity stops Early, perceptible signs from the volcano and prompt warning and mobilization of disaster-response officials minimized the human losses. As soon as PHIVOLCS decides to issue a warning, it notifies the Office of the President and the national and local DCCs, through Volcano Bulletins and advisories that explain the condition of the volcano and recommended actions. Occurrence of pyroclastic flows, tall eruption columns and extensive ashfall. One of the holdouts compromised by sending his family not to an evacuation center but to a place a bit farther away from the volcano, saying "Hindi naman daw kami aabutan ng pagputok ng bundok" ("We heard that the eruption will not reach us") (Cortes, 1991). Luzon, Philippines. This prompted the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) to raise the alert level to 4 (out of 5) to signify an imminent hazardous eruption. Quiescence; no magmatic eruption is foreseen. Punongbayan, R.S., Newhall, C.G., Bautista, M.L.P., Garcia, D., Harlow, D.H., Hoblitt, R.P., Sabit, J.P., and Solidum, R.U., this volume, Eruption hazard assessments and warnings. Ten years ago today (June 15, 2001), Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted with a tremendous force, ejecting vast amounts of ash and gas high into the atmosphere; so high that the volcano’s plume penetrated into the stratosphere. Warning messages were formulated at PHIVOLCS' main office and transmitted simultaneously through the DCC hierarchy, major national and local newspapers, radio and television stations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and directly to the endangered inhabitants. Response to preeruption warning in each of the danger zones. Slight inflation or swelling of the edifice. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology last night raised Taal Volcano’s alert level to Alert Level 4, warning of a possible hazardous eruption. When Mount Pinatubo blew in 1991 in the Philippines, it was the second largest eruption of the 20th century. Five-level alert scheme for Mount Pinatubo, May 13, 1991. The survey covered only the survivors and is biased in favor of those who took precautions. However, within the group that evacuated, some waited two or more days after receipt of an evacuation order before moving, and some merely evacuated their women, children, and elderly or evacuated but returned. Interviews were conducted by PHIVOLCS staff and volunteers (local school teachers) with the aid of interview schedules (appendix 2) and, as needed, interpreters. These provided information on the condition of the volcano, including whether its activities would likely culminate in an eruption. Criteria. Rather, it was meant to define a window in which an eruption was possible and to indicate disappearing margins of safety. The 10-km danger zone was reiterated when the alert level scheme shown in table 1 was officially adopted on May 13, 1991, and Alert Level 2 was raised. Two posteruption surveys, one in 1991 and another in 1992, assessed whether eruption warnings were received, understood, and used by citizens to take protective action. Small earthquakes swarm (20-180) per day occurred beneath Mt. Danger zones may be expanded up to eight (8) kilometers from the active crater. Magma is near or at the surface, and activity could lead to hazardous eruption in weeks. The alternative is to consciously dissociate the alert levels from danger zones, define a permanent danger zone, and keep other danger zones open-ended and adjustable. The 10-km danger zone, in effect since September 1991, was maintained throughout the 1992 unrest. In practice, the latter distinction was largely lost.] Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991. Generation of deadly pyroclastic flows, surges and/or lateral blasts and widespread tephra fall (ashfall). Photo Courtesy of Domcar Calinawan Lagto Today, January 12, 2020, Taal Volcano has become the center of news in TV and social media as PHIVOLCS (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology) raised its alert level from 2 to 4 in just couple of hours. B) If trend shows further decline, volcano may soon go to level 1. By June 9, Mayor Richard Gordon of Olongapo City was reported to have dispatched trucks to "clear" barangays within the 20-km danger zone where "there were still some Negritoes who chose to stay where they were, because of their livestock and other properties" (Villanueva and Dizon, 1991). Some who did not evacuate as advised thought the eruption would not be strong enough to affect their places; others were reluctant to leave behind their houses and household effects, livestock, and crops, especially at harvest time; still others had no ready means of transport and could not walk long distances, or they believed that their God, Apo Namalyari, would not let them come to harm. The second evacuation was the one of the 10-20 km zone on June 7. Newhall, written commun., 1994). Background, quiet: No eruption in foreseeable future: 1. Shortly after the explosion, a new lava dome is observed 1 km NW of the main crater: new lava is now at the surface, but the viscous lava effectively blocks the gas-rich magma beneath it. An evacuation area 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) away from the volcano was established and 25,000 people were evacuated. One respondent did not want to leave immediately because it was fiesta time. However, there are hazards 1 (explosions, rockfalls and landslides) that may suddenly occur within the four-kilometer radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ). An emergency broadcast network could be identified, with media representatives officially identified and properly trained to handle warning and emergency response operations. Danger zones may be expanded to fourteen (14) kilometers as eruption progresses. [Number of respondents was 234], Table 8. It performed even better in 1992. The Aviation Colour Code is changed to yellow. If the anticipated eruption would be similar to the June 12, 1991 eruption, then the 10- to 20-km danger zone would be affected, so why should they wait? When one of these volcanoes manifests abnormal behavior, PHIVOLCS interprets its changing behavior and decides whether or not to send warnings and, if so, when. The discrepancy between the warning message released by the source and that which was actually received appears to be a simple transmission problem. One is to explore the possibility of striking some correspondence between alert levels and danger zones. All monitored parameters within background levels. As of Friday, areas around the volcano still remain on Alert Level 4, which means another eruption could be imminent. Low to moderate level of seismic, other unrest  with positive evidence for involvement of magma, Relatively high and increasing unrest, including numerous b-type earthquakes, accelerating ground deformation and rockfalls, increased vigor of fumaroles, gas emission, Intense unrest, including harmonic tremor and/or may “long period” (=low frequency) earthquakes or quiet lava emissions and/or dome growth and/or small explosions, Magma close to or at earth’s surface.

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